The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) economic cooperation has long been an important framework for regional development in Southeast Asia, encompassing Cambodia, China, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam, with the aim of promoting economic growth through regional cooperation. However, as regional economic integration advances, issues regarding ecology and resource allocation have become increasingly prominent. According to reports from the Central News Agency (CNA), the construction of the Don Sahong Dam in Laos is viewed by local fishermen and environmentalists as a "dam killer," which not only obstructs downstream water flow but also causes the loss of fish spawning habitats and the death of forests due to abnormal water levels, severely impacting the livelihoods of downstream countries such as Cambodia.

Although the Chinese government emphasized a focus on innovative development and building a beautiful home together in the "Declaration of the 8th GMS Summit," the contradiction between infrastructure construction and environmental protection remains a major public issue for Southeast Asian nations, reflecting the tug-of-war between development and sustainability in regional economic cooperation.

In terms of international trade, global attention is focused on the upcoming "Xi-Trump Summit" to be held in Washington on September 24. Combining reports from Reuters and Wealth Magazine, U.S. President Donald Trump is currently facing declining domestic approval ratings, rising living costs, and the dual geopolitical and economic pressures brought about by the war in Iran. By contrast, China's export engine remains strong, with its global trade surplus expected to exceed $1 trillion for the second consecutive year. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng have already held talks in New York to pave the way for the summit, with discussion topics covering artificial intelligence safety guardrails and trade in non-sensitive products.

Multiple media outlets have confirmed that the primary goal of this meeting is not to reach a major new agreement, but to strive for an extension of the tariff truce reached last year to avoid further severe shocks to the global economy.

Although both sides have entered the pre-summit negotiation stage, differences and uncertainties remain regarding the scope of discussions on the Taiwan issue. Reuters analysis points out that due to Trump's political predicament in the quagmire of the Iran war, there is high concern over whether Taiwan might become a "bargaining chip" for the Chinese side at the negotiating table. Meanwhile, Raymond Greene, Director of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), recently emphasized publicly that Taiwan is at the core of critical global supply chains, and that the operation of the global economy is highly dependent on commercial and trade exchanges with Taiwan, rather than just energy issues.

It remains to be confirmed whether the U.S. and China will include the Taiwan issue on the agenda during formal talks, and whether China, given its export advantage, will make substantive concessions on trade conditions proposed by the U.S. These are key variables in observing the outcome of this summit.

The aforementioned economic and geopolitical dynamics have a profound impact on Southeast Asia and global industrial chains. As an important node in the global supply chain, Southeast Asian countries are not only indirectly impacted by changes in U.S.-China trade policies but are also directly threatened by the environmental impact of infrastructure construction within the region. If the U.S. and China cannot maintain the tariff truce, the stability of global supply chains will face challenges, subsequently affecting the export and manufacturing performance of Southeast Asia. Furthermore, Taiwan's critical position in the global supply chain means that any international political maneuvering involving Taiwan could trigger a chain reaction in global technology and manufacturing, making the balancing strategy of Southeast Asian nations between the two major powers even more difficult.

Regarding the analyses and predictions from various sectors, experts remind that they should not be over-interpreted. The current focus of U.S.-China negotiations remains on extending the tariff truce and avoiding economic shocks, rather than seeking comprehensive structural changes. Expectations for Beijing to make major concessions are relatively low, primarily due to China's current trade surplus advantage and the limitations placed on Trump's negotiating leverage by domestic political pressure. Therefore, the substantive results of this Xi-Trump summit may be limited to maintaining the status quo. Additionally, the Mekong ecological crisis is a long-term regional governance issue; its solution involves not only the technical aspects of dam construction but also political negotiations over transnational water resource allocation, which is unlikely to be fundamentally improved through a single summit in the short term.

Subsequent observations should focus on the joint declaration or statements made by both sides after the Xi-Trump summit on September 24, particularly regarding the specific direction of tariff policies and whether the Taiwan issue is mentioned. In Southeast Asia, it is necessary to continue monitoring the coordination progress among countries regarding Mekong water resource management and environmental protection under the GMS framework, as well as how ASEAN nations respond to the pressure of supply chain restructuring brought about by the U.S.-China trade game. The stability of the global economy will continue to be tested amidst the fragile balance of U.S.-China trade relations and the challenges of regional environmental issues.