The rapid iteration of artificial intelligence (AI) technology is profoundly altering the operational models of global capital markets and industrial supply chains. According to recent financial reports, SoftBank Group completed a renegotiation with creditor banks in September 2026, significantly increasing its margin loan facility—backed by shares of its chip design subsidiary, Arm—to $25 billion. This move provides SoftBank with an additional $5 billion in liquidity, aimed at further investment in AI infrastructure, chip research and development, and model companies.

Founder Masayoshi Son’s recent investment commitment to OpenAI has reached as high as $65 billion, demonstrating SoftBank’s high-leverage expansion strategy in the AI sector. Simultaneously, optical and materials science giant Coherent Corp. (COHR) has benefited from robust AI hardware demand, with its stock price soaring 182.4% over the past year, far outperforming the S&P 500 index, reflecting the high concentration of market capital in the AI hardware supply chain.

On the industrial supply chain front, the global memory chip shortage is continuing to worsen, with supply constraints expected to persist through 2027 and potentially into 2028. Data from market research firms TrendForce and Counterpoint Research indicate that memory prices surged by 93% to 98% in the first quarter of this year, with a further increase of 13% to 18% projected for the current quarter. This supply chain crisis is forcing small electronic device manufacturers to redesign products and face pressure from rising terminal retail prices; global smartphone shipments are estimated to decline by 13.9% to approximately 1.08 billion units, marking the largest drop in history.

Furthermore, the proliferation of AI technology has brought about massive energy demands. The American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) recently convened experts from 28 countries to discuss "strengthening energy resilience and supply chain security," with a focus on the grid pressure and governance challenges accompanying AI development.

Regarding the South American region, although there is a gap in direct investment in AI infrastructure compared to the U.S. and Asian regions, its role as a vital supplier of global critical minerals and energy is being indirectly affected by the aforementioned global shifts. According to reporting from the Latin Herald and the Associated Press (AP News) concerning South American nations such as Ecuador, the region faces challenges regarding insufficient infrastructure resilience while navigating global supply chain restructuring and digital transformation.

Currently, there are differing assessments among media outlets regarding the specific economic impact of AI on South America. Some perspectives suggest that the demand for memory and semiconductors driven by AI will further exacerbate the digital divide in developing countries, while others emphasize that if energy supply security can be improved through international cooperation, South America may find a new strategic position in the global supply chain of the AI era.

There remains uncertainty regarding the subsequent impact of SoftBank’s expanded financing. While SoftBank has secured funds by pledging Arm shares, high leverage could pose financial risks if the return cycle on AI investments does not meet expectations. Additionally, it remains to be seen whether the impact of memory shortages on the end-consumer market will lead to a structural recession in the global electronics industry. Experts warn against viewing the stock performance of a single company or the supply-demand imbalance of a specific industry as the sole indicator of the global economy. Particularly in emerging markets like South America, policymakers need to carefully evaluate the capital flows of global tech giants to avoid neglecting the autonomy of local energy and digital infrastructure due to over-reliance on external supply chains.

Regarding the specific impact on related industries, the explosion in AI demand is no longer limited to the software layer but has extended to the energy and basic materials sectors. For technology policymakers in South America, balancing participation in the global AI supply chain with ensuring domestic energy supply resilience will be a core challenge in the coming years. As cost pressures from global memory shortages spill over, the import costs for electronic devices in South America are expected to rise significantly, which may prompt local governments to accelerate the R&D and transformation of localized supply chains to mitigate the shocks caused by external market volatility.

Subsequent observations should focus on two main aspects: first, whether SoftBank Group’s massive investments in AI can translate into concrete technological breakthroughs, thereby easing the current tensions in the global hardware supply chain; and second, the restructuring process of the global energy supply chain driven by AI demand, particularly the progress of international cooperation in energy transition and digital infrastructure construction in South America. As the 2027 supply-demand equilibrium point approaches, the flow of capital and technology in the global tech industry will continue to reshape the competitive landscape of regional economies, making it worth continuing to track changes in relevant policies and industry data.