The conflict in the Middle East has recently reached a critical turning point, involving not only the restructuring of the regional security architecture but also creating a chain reaction affecting global public health and energy stability. According to a report by The Intercept, the U.S. military is on the verge of operational collapse under the sustained pressure of the war in Iran. Multiple U.S. officials familiar with Middle East operations have pointed out that U.S. military bases and frontline troops are enduring unprecedented logistical and operational burdens. Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly condemned U.S. hegemony in mid-September, accusing the United States of using intimidation to hinder other countries from engaging in substantive cooperation with Tehran.

Against this backdrop, the Middle East has become not only a geopolitical arena but also the core region for adjustments in global energy markets and security policies.

Multiple sources have confirmed that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has had a significant impact on the global energy supply chain. According to The Moscow Times, as Middle East supply chains are disrupted by the war, global market demand for alternative energy has surged, causing the price of ESPO crude oil in Russia's Far East to soar, exceeding $120 per barrel. This data reflects that the supply chain shocks triggered by the Middle East conflict have directly increased procurement costs for major energy importers such as China. Furthermore, the U.S. government has begun coordinating with Persian Gulf nations in an attempt to alleviate the dual pressure on military and energy supplies, indicating that energy security in the Middle East is now deeply tied to U.S. military strategy.

On the diplomatic front, there are clear differences regarding the specific path to ending the war. Massad Boulos, a senior advisor to U.S. President Trump, told Euronews that the Trump administration is actively taking action to end the months-long war in Iran as soon as possible, emphasizing that Trump is a leader who "delivers on his promises." However, Iranian officials remain highly skeptical of U.S. mediation intentions. President Pezeshkian has publicly criticized the U.S. for bullying other nations, implying that in the current diplomatic climate, even if governments privately lean toward supporting Tehran, they find it difficult to take public action in practice due to fear of U.S. pressure.

Additionally, The Conversation points out that European countries, such as Italy, are attempting to use pragmatic diplomacy to politically recalibrate between regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Palestine, seeking a new diplomatic balance point amidst the chaotic situation.

This situation has had a direct impact on public health and social stability in the Middle East. The pressure of military deployments caused by the prolonged war is not limited to the U.S. military but also affects infrastructure and medical resource supplies within the region. With soaring oil prices and supply chain disruptions, the economic pressure on countries in the region has increased dramatically, which may further weaken the ability of these governments to invest in the public health sector. While U.S. military coordination with various countries in the Persian Gulf is intended to maintain regional security, this highly militarized response strategy may also crowd out the allocation of resources for civilian infrastructure, leaving vulnerable groups in the region facing greater survival risks.

Although all parties have signaled diplomatic mediation, analysts warn against over-interpreting current ceasefire intentions. The "collapse" risk currently faced by the U.S. military reflects that the war has exceeded expected logistical loads, which may be one of the drivers pushing the U.S. to seek a diplomatic solution. However, Iran's deep distrust of U.S. hegemony remains a major obstacle at the negotiating table. Furthermore, while the political recalibration strategies of countries like Italy demonstrate European concern for regional stability, it remains to be seen whether their influence can effectively counterbalance the direct confrontation between the U.S. and Iran. All parties should be wary of the secondary inflation risks that may be brought about by energy price fluctuations, as well as the chronic damage caused by the prolonged war to regional public health systems.

Follow-up observations should focus on three areas: first, whether U.S. military deployments in the Persian Gulf will undergo a strategic contraction due to logistical pressure; second, whether Iran and Persian Gulf nations will be forced to adjust their diplomatic stances in the face of soaring energy prices, thereby affecting political recalibration within the region; and finally, whether the international community can propose concrete coordination plans for the energy and humanitarian crises triggered by the Middle East conflict. As oil prices continue to hover at high levels, the stability of the global energy market will become a key indicator of whether the situation in the Middle East is moving toward de-escalation.

Source List

• www.shopbop.com: https://www.shopbop.com/

• www.themoscowtimes.com: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/09/18/russian-far-east-crude-tops-120-per-barrel-as-middle-east-supply-shocks-drive-chinese-demand-a93748

• www.euronews.com: https://www.euronews.com/2026/09/17/trump-determined-to-end-iran-war-soon-us-presidents-senior-adviser-tells-euronews

• theconversation.com: https://theconversation.com/middle-east-is-the-latest-arena-of-political-recalibration-for-italys-right-wing-but-pragmatic-meloni-291016

• theintercept.com: https://theintercept.com/2026/09/15/iran-war-us-military-bases/

• iran.liveuamap.com: https://iran.liveuamap.com/en/2026/15-september-15-a-us-official-said-the-us-military-and-gulf