The security situation in Northeast Asia has long been deeply influenced by the Korean Peninsula issue. This is not merely a regional geopolitical conflict but one that affects multilateral international relations involving the United States, Japan, mainland China, and Russia. According to a report from the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) regarding its 2025 diplomatic and security survey, North Korea's nuclear and missile development has constituted a substantive regional security risk. This issue is closely linked to South Korea's domestic politics and foreign policy, becoming a focal point of high concern for scholars and policymakers.

Meanwhile, Taiwan's International Council of Cultural Studies (ICCS) has also analyzed that the world is currently facing multiple crises, including the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen. The international order is becoming increasingly complex, and the deepening relationship between Russia and North Korea has further exacerbated tensions in Northeast Asia.

Multiple research sources have confirmed that the nuclear and missile threats on the Korean Peninsula are not a single-country issue but a core variable in the multilateral security architecture of Northeast Asia. Through policy recommendations, the Japan Institute of International Affairs emphasizes the need for in-depth research into North Korea's strategic threats and an assessment of their specific impact on regional stability. At the same time, international observers have pointed out that with the intensification of great power competition, the risk of military confrontation in Northeast Asia is rising. These research institutions unanimously agree that North Korea's military actions and diplomatic strategies directly affect the defense deployments and regional cooperation mechanisms of surrounding countries, making Northeast Asia a highly uncertain zone in the global security landscape.

However, there are still differences among research sources regarding the assessment of specific risks and response strategies. Some sources focus on the concrete threat of North Korea's nuclear technology, while other perspectives emphasize the influence of South Korea's domestic political changes on its foreign policy, as well as the power struggle between the U.S.-Japan-South Korea alliance and the strategic coordination between China and Russia. Furthermore, there are subtle differences in the interpretations by various think tanks and media regarding the evolution of Russia's role in Korean Peninsula affairs, particularly concerning the depth and breadth of Russia-North Korea military cooperation, for which there is currently a lack of public and consistent empirical data. This unconfirmed information makes it difficult to reach a single consensus on regional security assessments in the short term, with all parties remaining in a phase of continuous observation and dynamic adjustment.

This situation has a profound impact on Northeast Asia, first reflected in the increase in national defense budgets and the frequency of military exercises. Faced with North Korean missile threats, Japan and South Korea have been forced to strengthen their missile defense systems and deepen their military alliances with the United States, which has further sparked concerns about an arms race in the region. At the industrial level, geopolitical instability has directly impacted supply chain security, particularly in the semiconductor and high-tech industries, which are extremely sensitive to the risks of logistics and energy disruptions caused by regional conflicts. Additionally, social anxiety regarding the risk of war has influenced the direction of public policy in various countries, forcing governments to seek a more fragile balance between economic development and national security.

Regarding the analysis of the situation in Northeast Asia, experts warn against over-interpreting single events or simplifying complex international relations into binary oppositions. Although the North Korean nuclear threat is clear, the interests of countries in the region are intertwined and cannot be explained by a single security issue alone. The limitation is that reports from international research institutions are mostly based on public information and policy forecasts; for the highly closed North Korean decision-making mechanism, there remains a huge information gap for external observers. Therefore, when interpreting relevant security recommendations, the outside world should consider the flexibility of foreign policy and the unpredictability of geopolitics, and should not view think tank policy suggestions as inevitable precursors to future military conflict.

Subsequent observation will focus on several key indicators: first, the substantive actions of North Korea in missile launches and nuclear tests, and whether it will further engage in military technology transfers with Russia; second, how South Korea and Japan will adjust their autonomous defense capabilities and diplomatic negotiation strategies when facing regional security challenges; and finally, the interaction mode between the U.S. and China in Northeast Asian affairs, particularly whether both sides can maintain minimal communication and control regarding the issue of denuclearization of the peninsula and regional stability. These factors will collectively determine the direction of the security situation in Northeast Asia and are also the focus of continued attention from the international community.