全球南方地緣政治與產業佈局:南美戰略地位與川普對中汽車政策展望Geopolitics and Industrial Layout of the Global South: The Strategic Status of South America and the Outlook for Trump’s China Auto Policy

全球南方地緣政治與產業佈局:南美戰略地位與川普對中汽車政策展望

Geopolitics and Industrial Layout of the Global South: The Strategic Status of South America and the Outlook for Trump’s China Auto Policy

隨著全球南方影響力提升,南美洲作為全球第四大洲,其地緣政治角色日益關鍵。同時,美國總統川普近期針對中國汽車製造商的開放態度,亦可能間接影響美洲區域供應鏈佈局。

As the influence of the Global South grows, South America—the world's fourth-largest continent—is playing an increasingly critical geopolitical role. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump's recent openness toward Chinese automakers may indirectly impact the supply chain layout across the Americas.

南美洲(South America)總面積約為 1,784 萬平方公里,佔全球陸地總面積約 11.98%,是僅次於亞洲、非洲與北美的全球第四大洲。該區域在當前國際地緣政治中扮演重要角色,特別是在「全球南方」(Global South)的論述框架下,南美各國與其他開發中大國的互動備受關注。根據 BBC 的分析指出,儘管全球南方國家在國際組織中尋求合作,但如中國、印度等大國之間仍存在競爭關係,各方均試圖在不被他國掩蓋光芒的前提下,爭取區域話語權。

South America covers a total area of approximately 17.84 million square kilometers, accounting for about 11.98% of the world's total land area, making it the fourth-largest continent after Asia, Africa, and North America. The region plays a significant role in current international geopolitics, particularly within the framework of the "Global South," where the interactions between South American nations and other major developing powers are receiving close attention. According to an analysis by the BBC, although Global South nations seek cooperation within international organizations, competitive relationships persist between major powers such as China and India, with each side attempting to secure regional influence without being overshadowed by others.

南美洲作為該框架的重要組成部分,其政策走向與資源戰略地位,成為各方勢力角逐的焦點。

As an essential component of this framework, South America’s policy direction and strategic resource status have become a focal point for competing powers.

在產業政策方面,美國對外貿易政策出現顯著轉向。根據《路透社》報導,美國總統川普於 2026 年 9 月 12 日表示,儘管面臨國會及汽車產業的普遍反對,他對於中國汽車製造商在美國境內設廠生產持開放態度。川普在接受《福斯新聞》採訪時強調,其核心考量在於「就業機會」,並以日本車廠在美設廠為例,主張只要中國車廠能僱用美國勞工,他便不反對其進入美國市場。

Regarding industrial policy, U.S. foreign trade policy has seen a significant shift. According to a Reuters report, U.S. President Donald Trump stated on September 12, 2026, that despite widespread opposition from Congress and the automotive industry, he is open to Chinese automakers establishing manufacturing plants within the United States. In an interview with Fox News, Trump emphasized that his core consideration is "job creation," citing Japanese automakers' presence in the U.S. as an example, and argued that as long as Chinese car manufacturers hire American workers, he would not oppose their entry into the U.S. market.

此一政策立場若落實,將可能改變全球汽車供應鏈的流向,包含比亞迪(BYD)等中國電動車巨頭在美洲的佈局策略,亦可能連帶影響南美洲作為電動車產業鏈中關鍵原材料供應地的地位。

If this policy stance is implemented, it could alter the flow of the global automotive supply chain. This includes the strategic layout of Chinese electric vehicle (EV) giants, such as BYD, in the Americas, and may consequently affect South America's status as a key supplier of raw materials for the EV industry chain.

然而,關於此一政策的推行細節與具體影響,目前仍存在多項不確定因素。雖然川普明確表達了「僱用美國工人」作為准入前提,但美國國會議員與本土汽車企業的反對聲浪依然強烈,顯示該政策在執行面上將面臨嚴峻的政治阻力。此外,中國車廠是否願意接受此類設廠條件,以及其在南美洲已有的產能佈局是否會因此調整,目前尚無明確的企業回應。

However, there remain many uncertainties regarding the implementation details and specific impacts of this policy. Although Trump has clearly expressed "hiring American workers" as a prerequisite for entry, opposition from U.S. lawmakers and domestic automakers remains strong, indicating that the policy will face severe political resistance during execution. Furthermore, there has been no clear corporate response regarding whether Chinese automakers are willing to accept such conditions, or whether their existing production layouts in South America will be adjusted as a result.

BBC 的分析則提醒,全球南方國家之間的利益並非完全一致,各國在與美、中等大國互動時,皆有各自的戰略考量,這使得南美洲在參與全球供應鏈重組時,必須在複雜的地緣政治夾縫中尋求平衡。

The BBC’s analysis reminds us that the interests of Global South nations are not entirely aligned. Each country has its own strategic considerations when interacting with major powers like the U.S. and China, which forces South American nations to seek balance within complex geopolitical cracks as they participate in the restructuring of global supply chains.

對南美洲而言,上述政策變動具有深遠影響。若中國車廠加速在美洲擴張,南美洲作為鋰礦等電動車關鍵原物料的主要輸出地,其產業鏈角色將更為吃重。然而,這也意味著南美各國需在美國的貿易保護政策與中國的資本輸出之間進行抉擇。若美方對中國汽車產業採取更靈活的在地化生產政策,南美洲可能成為連結美中兩大市場的關鍵中繼站;反之,若貿易壁壘升高,則可能導致區域內的投資環境更加動盪。

For South America, the aforementioned policy changes have profound implications. If Chinese automakers accelerate their expansion in the Americas, South America’s role in the industry chain as a major exporter of key EV raw materials, such as lithium, will become even more significant. However, this also means that South American nations must choose between U.S. trade protection policies and Chinese capital exports. If the U.S. adopts more flexible localization policies for the Chinese automotive industry, South America could become a key transit hub connecting the U.S. and Chinese markets; conversely, if trade barriers rise, it could lead to greater volatility in the regional investment environment.

此外,南美洲目前僅有蓋亞那(Guyana)以英語作為官方語言,其餘國家多使用西語或葡語,語言與文化的多樣性在國際談判與區域整合中,亦是不可忽視的變數。

Additionally, Guyana is currently the only country in South America with English as an official language, while most others use Spanish or Portuguese. This linguistic and cultural diversity is a variable that cannot be ignored in international negotiations and regional integration.

儘管川普的言論為中國汽車產業開啟了一扇潛在的門,但外界不應過度解讀其為中美貿易關係的全面緩和。分析人士指出,川普的立場更多是基於美國國內就業市場的選票考量,而非對中國產業政策的認同。對於南美洲國家而言,將自身經濟命運過度押注於單一強權的政策轉向,存在極高的風險。各國應審慎評估在「全球南方」框架下的集體談判能力,避免在美中兩大強權的角力中淪為附庸,並應持續強化區域內的基礎設施與產業自主性,以應對可能發生的全球供應鏈重組衝擊。

Although Trump's remarks have opened a potential door for the Chinese automotive industry, the outside world should not over-interpret this as a comprehensive easing of U.S.-China trade relations. Analysts point out that Trump's stance is based more on considerations regarding votes in the domestic U.S. job market than on an endorsement of China's industrial policy. For South American nations, betting their economic fate entirely on the policy shift of a single superpower carries extremely high risks. Countries should cautiously evaluate their collective bargaining power within the "Global South" framework to avoid becoming vassals in the power struggle between the U.S. and China, and should continue to strengthen regional infrastructure and industrial autonomy to cope with the potential shocks of global supply chain restructuring.

後續觀察重點應聚焦於:第一,美國國會是否會針對川普的汽車設廠言論提出具體的法案限制;第二,中國汽車巨頭(如比亞迪)在美洲的後續投資計畫,是否會從單純的出口轉向在地化生產;第三,南美洲國家在即將到來的國際峰會中,對於全球南方合作機制與全球供應鏈參與的具體立場。這些因素將共同決定南美洲在未來全球經貿格局中的位置,以及該區域能否從中獲得實質的經濟發展紅利,而非僅僅是作為大國博弈的戰略籌碼。

Future observations should focus on: first, whether the U.S. Congress will propose specific legislative restrictions in response to Trump's comments on auto manufacturing; second, whether the subsequent investment plans of Chinese automotive giants (such as BYD) in the Americas will shift from simple exports to localized production; and third, the specific positions of South American nations regarding Global South cooperation mechanisms and participation in global supply chains at upcoming international summits. These factors will collectively determine South America's position in the future global economic and trade landscape, and whether the region can derive substantial economic development dividends from it, rather than merely serving as a strategic bargaining chip in the game between major powers.